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  • Oxford Biosecurity Group 2024 Impact Evaluation: Capacity Building

    Summary Oxford Biosecurity Group (OBG) conducts global research projects in collaboration with technical and policy organisations, to foster talent and tackle issues in biosecurity and the intersection of AI and biology. This document summarises the capacity building impact of our two project cycles that were run in 2024: OBG24-1 (7 weeks, January-March 2024) and OBG24-2 (8 weeks, May-June 2024), by looking at career plan updates, skills and connections gained, and next steps of past participants.  In total in 2024, 48 researchers have completed one project cycle, and 3 have completed two project cycles. Outside of the co-founding team, 8 project leads ran projects in one project cycle, and 1 project lead ran projects in two project cycles, and we’ve had researchers or project leads from every populated continent. We identified 31 promising participants for further support and opportunities.  Based on form responses, in OBG24-1, 33% rated OBG to have increased their likelihood of going into a biosecurity career, and another 20% said they decided to do additional research as a result. In OBG24-2, the mean increase in how much people were considering biosecurity as a career path increased by 1.5/10, and the median was 2/10, with the mean and median after projects being 8.4/10 and 9/10 respectively. For both OBG24-1 and OBG24-2, the most frequent skills gained by researchers were ‘deeper understanding of biosecurity’ and ‘research skills’, and the median number of new connections in biosecurity researchers were happy to ask for a favour was 3 (the mean being 3 and 4.4 for OBG24-1 and OBG24-2 respectively).  All participants indicated they would do at least one concrete action relating to getting more involved in biosecurity, including stating they would apply for internships and full-time jobs. The next steps of past participants include Bluedot Impact, Existential Risk Laboratory, founding and directing a non-profit, and continuing with full-time or part-time work with the collaborating organisation.  Introduction Oxford Biosecurity Group (OBG) conducts global research projects in collaboration with technical and policy organisations, to foster talent and tackle issues in biosecurity and the intersection of AI and biology. Past projects have been run in areas such as AI-bio, synthetic DNA regulation policy, and lab safety governance, with collaborators such as Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), CEPI, and Center for AI Safety. Since our founding in October 2023, we have run 3 project cycles including our pilot cycle. Projects are typically run in 2-3 month ‘project cycles’ of 5 or more projects, which allows for economies of scale for operational and time costs for processes such as recruitment and onboarding, and for easier resource sharing and networking across projects. Each project is led by a project lead, with 3-6 researchers each spending 5-10 hours a week doing research. Researchers and project leads can gain skills, experience and networks in biosecurity, and promising researchers are referred by us for additional support and opportunities.  OBG influences biosecurity in two significant ways: capacity building and direct project outcomes. Firstly, by enhancing biosecurity capacity, OBG attracts talented individuals to the field, helps them develop their skills, expands their professional networks, and connects them with opportunities. Secondly, OBG makes an impact through the tangible results achieved through the outcomes of the projects themselves.  This document presents the findings of our impact evaluation in increasing biosecurity capacity of the two project cycles that were run in 2024: OBG24-1 (7 weeks, January-March 2024) and OBG24-2 (8 weeks, May-June 2024). In addition to this, we have a document with participants’ next steps and testimonials, which is not publicly shareable for privacy reasons. For the summary of our project outcomes, see here .  Methods Capacity building impact looks at both career accelerations and career changes. The former primarily refers to people who have decided to work in biosecurity, where OBG is most helpful in helping them gain experience, skills and connections, which then helps them in getting future jobs or grants in the space. The latter includes and primarily looks at people who had not previously decided on a career in biosecurity, for example, those who may not previously have considered it but who have a relevant background or skills, or those who are deciding between a biosecurity career and various other options. However, it could also include somebody who had decided to work in biosecurity changing which area in biosecurity they plan to focus their career on, where the participant mentions this to us.  This impact evaluation looks at short-term outcomes, as the pilot project cycle only finished in December 2023 and therefore not enough time has passed for longer-term outcomes to be evaluated. To determine longer-term outcomes, participants will be followed up with again 1-2 years after the end of their respective projects, however, this is not yet possible as not enough time has passed. The rest of this section gives more details about which metrics are used and how this information is collected.  Metrics to Evaluate Career Changes The main metric that is primarily relevant for career changes is ‘Career Plan Updates’: has there been any change to the amount that the participant is considering biosecurity as a career? Career Accelerations The main metrics that are primarily relevant for career accelerations are:  Skills Gained Which skills the participant improved through taking part in the project Network Building How many people the participant knows through OBG that they are now happy to ask for a favour, e.g. to reach out to for advice Both The following metrics are looked at equally for both career changes and career accelerations:  Referrals and support How many participants are identified for referral or provided with further support This is based both on the interests and career plans of the participant and on the participant’s performance in projects Next steps What concrete actions the participants go on to do after the end of the projects (e.g. career changes, but also relevant courses and further study) As this takes time for participants to do this, we also ask about planned next steps It is difficult to determine exactly how much OBG influenced these next steps  In some cases we expect the actions would most likely not have occurred without OBG (e.g. a participants continuing with the collaborating organisation), while in other cases OBG would have played a contributing role (e.g. relevant experience from OBG increasing the chance of a participant being accepted into a fellowship they applied for). In some cases, participants may have taken these next steps regardless of whether or not they did OBG. Collecting Data Data to evaluate short-term outcomes is primarily collected from:  Responses to researcher and project lead feedback forms Testimonials from participants (primarily internal/for very limited sharing) Number of participants OBG directly refers to relevant people/opportunities or otherwise given follow-on support Followup of past participants and looking at their publicly available online presence The Forms At the end of the projects, researcher feedback forms and project lead feedback forms are sent out to the researchers and project leads respectively. For OBG24-2 we added an onboarding form which researchers were encouraged to fill in during the kickoff presentations. This was both to help improve the researcher experience and for us to compare the stated likelihood of going into a biosecurity career both before and after the project period. The following information is obtained from the project lead and researchers forms, through numerical answers (e.g. rankings out of 10), multiple choice questions and free text responses.  Researchers:  Likelihood of going into biosecurity as a career path Researcher skills gained and career plans (qualitative and quantitative) Specific stated next steps relating to biosecurity researchers are planning Project leads: Project lead skills gained and career plans (qualitative and quantitative) Any promising researchers who we can refer to for other opportunities There are additional questions including those that relate to participant experiences, which have also been analysed and will make up part of our retrospective.  Number of Form Responses Project Leads At least one project lead for each of the projects completed the project leads feedback form. When doing numerical analysis in the sections below, the ratings and responses from the OBG co-founders were not included to avoid bias. This gives a remaining sample size of 4 project leads for both OBG24-1 and OBG24-2 . Note that due to the small sample size here, individual responses will influence the overall outcome a lot, and any numerical rankings should not be used to draw strong conclusions without other evidence. Researchers OBG24-1 15 researchers filled in the feedback form . This is a 51.7% feedback form completion rate  given the 29 researchers who completed projects in this project cycle. Of these, 5 responses were anonymous.  OBG24-2 For OBG24-2, we added an onboarding form to help improve the researcher experience (the question ‘What would you most like to get out of this project with OBG?’ was asked) and to enable us to ask about the researcher’s interest in biosecurity as a career path both before and after their OBG project.  29 researchers filled in the onboarding form . This is a 70.7% onboarding form completion rate  given the 41 researchers who started projects in this project cycle. In addition to this, 2 project leads filled in the form. This was useful for improving their experience, but this data is not included in the analysis later in this document.  21 researchers filled in the feedback form . This is an 84% feedback form completion rate  given the 25 researchers who completed projects in this project cycle. Of the 21 researchers, 7 filled in the form anonymously, and one person filled in the feedback form but not the onboarding form. This leaves 13 (non-anonymous) researchers who filled in both the onboarding and feedback forms , allowing us to compare their responses.  Results This section summarises responses to the questions in the feedback form that are relevant to biosecurity capacity building.  Career Plan Updates Both the numerical and text-based responses were analysed to determine the likely career impacts of both cycles.  OBG24-1 For OBG24-1, there was no onboarding form, so the researchers were asked the following multiple-choice questions in the researcher feedback form: Were you previously considering a career in biosecurity (select one)? Has OBG made you more likely to pursue a career in biosecurity (select one or multiple)? These questions followed directly from the ‘How familiar were you with biosecurity before applying (select one or multiple)?’ question.  The results were processed so that: “Biosecurity was and still is my top career choice” if they selected:  “Yes, it was my top choice career path” for “Were you previously considering a career in biosecurity (select one)?” AND “No update/my likelihood of going into biosecurity as a career has not changed” OR "Yes, biosecurity is now my top career choice" for “Has OBG made you more likely to pursue a career in biosecurity (select one or multiple)?” “Biosecurity was and still is one of the career options I am strongly considering” if they selected: “Yes, it was one of several options I was strongly considering” for “Were you previously considering a career in biosecurity (select one)?” AND “No update/my likelihood of going into biosecurity as a career has not changed” OR "Yes, biosecurity is now one of my top potential career options" for “Has OBG made you more likely to pursue a career in biosecurity (select one or multiple)?” One researcher selected the ‘additional research’ and ‘unsure’ options, but other than that after processing there was one response per researcher.  We also asked an additional optional question:  What are your current career plans and how did OBG influence these? (Optional) Description: Please give some details about what your current career plans are. This is optional but would be useful for us to get context on your above answers and to evaluate our impact. 7 researchers responded to this question, of which 4 referred directly to OBG’s influence. One of those specifically mentioned their project with OBG made them more open to having a career in biosecurity, and the other three mentioned increased clarity of what work in different areas of biosecurity might look like.  OBG24-2 Researchers were asked about their likelihood of going into a biosecurity career in both the onboarding and feedback forms. This was done using the following questions, and researchers selected a rating out of 10 in both cases:  How much were you considering biosecurity as a career path before hearing about OBG? Description: 1 = I was not considering biosecurity as a career path before hearing about OBG. 10 = Biosecurity is my top choice career path. How interested are you in biosecurity as a career path? Description: 1 = I am not interested in biosecurity as a career path. 10 = Biosecurity is my top choice career path. In total, 13 researchers filled in both the onboarding and feedback forms non-anonymously, allowing us to compare their responses. The average ratings both before (from the onboarding form) and after (from the feedback form) are given below.  Of the 13 people who filled out both forms, four increased their stated likelihood of going into a biosecurity career by 3/10, and one by 4/10. Two of the researchers who increased their stated likelihood of going into biosecurity by 3/10 are also on the list of researchers identified for referral to further opportunities based on their performance in the projects. If you include all the responses for the onboarding and feedback forms: Of the 29 people who filled in the onboarding form, the mean interest in biosecurity as a career before the projects was 6.07/10 and the median was 6/10.  Of the 21 people who filled in the feedback form, the mean interest in biosecurity as a career after the projects was 8.38/10 and the median was 9/10. Note however that some of this difference may be due to people who are less interested in biosecurity to begin with being more likely to drop out of the projects. However, the mean and median for everyone who filled in the feedback form, and those who filled in both, were very similar (mean = 8.4, median = 9), suggesting that those researchers may be representative of the people finishing the projects. We also asked an additional optional question:  What are your current career plans and how did OBG influence these? (Optional) Description: Please give some details about what your current career plans are. This is optional but would be useful for us to get context on your above answers and to evaluate our impact. 8 researchers responded to this question, of which 5 mentioned some influence from OBG: One researcher we identified for referral said that as a result of their project, they are considering a role in biosecurity and another area of existential risk, and selected 'Apply for a full-time job related to biosecurity' as a concrete next step.  One researcher mentioned that OBG opened their eyes to "this important field”, and that they would be interested in going into it further.  Two researchers explicitly mention that OBG is likely to be useful for their CV, including one that mentioned OBG “probably helped” them when applying for the research fellowship they then completed. One researcher identified for referral whose stated likelihood of going into biosecurity increased by 3/10 mentioned that learning about how to approach and research a biosecurity question was helpful. Skills Gained Both researchers and project leads were asked the question ‘How useful did you find OBG for gaining skills related to biosecurity?’, to which they had to give an integer rating out of 10.  Researchers were also asked to select the sorts of skills they had gained. They could select one or multiple of the following options: What skills do you think you have improved in your OBG project? Research skills Deeper understanding of biosecurity Project management skills Time management skills Communication skills Specific technical skills, e.g. programming, modelling None of the above The multiple choice options for this question are likely to be updated over time, due to ongoing conversations with biosecurity experts about skills gaps within biosecurity. OBG24-1 The average rating out of 10 for the question ‘How useful did you find OBG for gaining skills related to biosecurity?’ for OBG24-1 for both project leads and researchers is given below.  There was only one researcher who gave a rating of 1/10 for this question. They noted that they did so because they had quite a lot of past biosecurity experience, but that they still found their OBG project to be a great experience. The following graph gives some detail about the specific skills that people have gained, with a deeper understanding of biosecurity and research skills being the two most commonly selected options. The person who ranked the project 1/10 for gaining research skills was also one of the two respondents who selected ‘None of the above’ for this question. OBG24-2 The average rating out of 10 for the question ‘How useful did you find OBG for gaining skills related to biosecurity?’ for OBG24-2  for both project leads and researchers is given below.  One specific project was particularly low scoring. We investigated the cause of this low rating, identified the problem and provided coaching to the project lead of this project so that they will not have similar issues in the future. We also reached out personally to the individual researchers to troubleshoot their experience. If the responses from that project are removed from the calculation, the remaining sample size for researchers would be 17 rather than 21, giving a mean score of 8.2/10 and a median score of 9/10. The following graph gives some detail about the specific skills that people have gained, with a deeper understanding of biosecurity and research skills being the two most commonly selected options.  Both of the researchers who selected ‘None of the above’ for the specific skills gained were in the project which was particularly low ranking.  The percentage of people selecting ‘deeper understanding of biosecurity’ remained relatively similar to the previous cycle, but the percentage of respondents who selected ‘research skills’ increased significantly. It is uncertain why this is, but may be due to two of the projects having an academic publication as a target output from the start of the project. Network Building Part of the value researchers and project leads get out of OBG is through building networks. A lot of this benefit comes from specific targeted connections and referrals, however, both researchers and project leads were asked: How many new people working on or interested in biosecurity do you now know, who you would be happy to ask a favour? Description: This might be something like asking for feedback on something that you are writing. An estimate is fine if you are uncertain. OBG24-1 In OBG24-1: For researchers, the mean and median number  of new people they would now be happy to ask a favour was 3 For project leads, the mean number  of new people they would now be happy to ask a favour was   7.75, and the median was 4.5 Note that the project leads have a sample size of 4, so the mean number was largely influenced by one project lead who wrote that there were 20 people who were now happy to ask for a favour. OBG24-2 In OBG24-2: For researchers, the mean number  of new people they would now be happy to ask a favour was   4.4, and the median was 3 For project leads, the mean number  of new people they would now be happy to ask a favour was   3.5, and the median was 3.5 Referrals and Support These referrals included recommending promising researchers or project leads to people within biosecurity who can offer additional support and opportunities, and direct referral to biosecurity mentoring opportunities, or otherwise provided with further support. Specifics are not included for privacy reasons, but numbers are given below.  OBG24-1 We  identified 13 people for referral  as a result of the OBG24-1 project cycle, made up of 11 researchers and 2 project leads.   OBG24-2 We  identified 13 people for referral  as a result of the OBG24-2 project cycle, made up of 11 researchers and 2 project leads.  Of these 13 people, two were previously involved in OBG24-1 but were referred after this as a result of further involvement in OBG24-2. Participant Next Steps Stated Next Steps Researchers were asked about their planned next steps in the researcher feedback form. The following options were given: What concrete actions do you now plan to take? Do further research or reading into biosecurity Reach out to and speak to experts in biosecurity to learn from them Research and write up something relating to biosecurity Continue with the OBG project that you have been working on or a very similar project Do another biosecurity-related project Apply for a Master's or PhD relating to biosecurity Look into potential supervisors for biosecurity-related graduate study Apply for an internship relating to biosecurity Apply for a full-time job relating to biosecurity Other None of the above This was done in part for impact evaluation, and in part to encourage researchers to concretely think about their next steps in biosecurity. Note that we cannot say how much these plans were influenced by participation in the OBG projects, as respondents might still have been planning these actions without OBG. OBG24-1 The responses for the OBG24-1 project cycle are given below:  The most frequently selected options were ‘do further research or reading into biosecurity’, ‘do another biosecurity-related project’ and ‘continue with the OBG project you have been working on, or a very similar project’.  Four respondents selected ‘apply for an internship relating to biosecurity’, one selected ‘apply for a Master’s or PhD relating to biosecurity’, and one selected ‘apply for a full-time job relating to biosecurity’ (note: this person had also selected ‘apply for an internship’). Two of the people who indicated they would apply for an internship relating to biosecurity were identified for referral and referred to people within biosecurity who could offer additional support and resources. The researcher who indicated both ‘apply for a full-time job’ and ‘apply for an internship’ is on our list of researchers to potentially work on future projects. The remaining researchers who selected ‘apply for an internship’ filled in the feedback form anonymously, so we cannot follow up with them.  Every respondent planned to do at least one concrete action. OBG24-2 The responses for the OBG24-1 project cycle are given below: The most frequently selected options were ‘do further research or reading into biosecurity’, ‘research and write up something relating to biosecurity’ and ‘do another biosecurity-related project’.  Six respondents selected ‘apply for an internship relating to biosecurity’, two selected ‘apply for a Master’s or PhD relating to biosecurity’, and four selected ‘apply for a full-time job relating to biosecurity’. There was some overlap between these responses - one person selected all three, one selected both the full-time job and the internship options, and one selected both the internship and Master’s/PhD options. The person who selected all three potential options was one of the researchers identified for referral, as is one of the other people who selected the ‘full-time job’ option, and two others who selected the ‘internship’ option. Two people who selected the ‘full-time job’ option filled in the form anonymously, which means we cannot follow up with them even though they indicated in the form that they were open to being contacted about the concrete actions they planned on taking.     Every respondent planned to do at least one concrete action. Next Steps in Followup This section highlights some notable next steps of past participants, based on initial follow-up conducted in September/October 2024 (apart from where noted). Additional follow-up is planned for early-mid 2025.  All information presented is either publicly available (where participants have mentioned both their OBG participation and their subsequent roles on LinkedIn or another public platform) or anonymised to protect privacy. While testimonials suggest OBG had a significant impact on some participants' next steps, it is difficult to determine how much of a counterfactual impact OBG had in all cases. For example, some participants may have only been partially influenced or aided by OBG (e.g. giving them relevant experience to help them get a role they would have applied for anyway), or have pursued similar paths regardless. We note that there are additional success stories that are not included here. OBG24-1 OBG24-1 finished ~6 months  before the initial follow-up was done. Some notable next steps of participants (researchers and project leads) of OBG24-1 are summarised below:  Founding and directing a related non-profit: 1 Attended the Biological Weapons Convention as a Next Generation Biosecurity delegate: 1 Biosecurity (or AI-biosecurity) contracting at a relevant think tank (Centre for Long-Term Resilience): 2 NB: both November 2024 start, information obtained from LinkedIn Continued working/contracting with the collaborating organisation: 1 Took part in a biosecurity (or AI-biosecurity) related fellowship (Existential Risk Laboratory/Pivotal Research/ERA Cambridge): 2 Teaching fellow for a biosecurity-related course (Bluedot Impact): 1 OBG24-2 OBG24-2 finished ~3 months  before the initial follow-up, leaving little time for participants to take concrete next steps. However, there are some notable next steps that we are aware of: Continued working/contracting with the collaborating organisation: 2 Took part in a biosecurity (or AI-biosecurity) related fellowship (Existential Risk Laboratory/Pivotal Research/ERA Cambridge): 1 This should not be compared directly to the results of the previous project cycle given that little time had passed. However, this shows that some participants had already been able to do further work in the space, and we are aware of other participants who have applied for relevant roles.  Conclusion OBG influences biosecurity in two significant ways: capacity building and direct project outcomes. This document summarises our impact in increasing biosecurity capacity of the two project cycles that were run in 2024. The majority of participants are more interested in a career in biosecurity after doing their project and have gained at least one skill and several valuable connections to help them do so. All participants stated that they would take at least one concrete action relating to getting more involved in biosecurity, and some have already gone on to take roles in the field.  Building on this success, OBG plans to run multiple projects and at least one project cycle in 2025. Our ability to run these projects and train more biosecurity professionals depends on two key forms of support: financial contributions and strategic partnerships. Visit our website  for up-to-date information about our current projects and opportunities to get involved.  To support our work through funding, please donate here  or contact us at fundraising@oxfordbiosecuritygroup.com . For potential collaborations and partnerships, please reach out to partnerships@oxfordbiosecuritygroup.com .

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    ​Connecting researchers with opportunities to conduct impactful biosecurity research. Oxford Biosecurity Group Connecting researchers with opportunities to conduct impactful biosecurity research Oxford Biosecurity Group (OBG) is a team of researchers dedicated to addressing issues related to biosecurity. OBG runs remote-first research projects, and we partner with relevant organisations in the space to drive progress on pressing issues and to help individuals test their fit, grow their network, and upskill in biosecurity. We have recently launched a private forecasting group to establish internal forecasts on biosecurity topics. For more details, see the website for this project here . Please sign up to our mailing list to be notified when we launch new projects. Join Our Mailing List About Projects Join Us Contact Blog © Oxford Biosecurity Group 2024.

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